Global demand for refined oil is expected to reach its final phase of growth in 2025, as cleaner energy and structural shifts in the global economy continue to reshape consumption patterns, according to a new industry report.
Source: China Energy News
Global demand for refined oil is expected to reach its final phase of growth in 2025, as cleaner energy and structural shifts in the global economy continue to reshape consumption patterns, according to a new industry report. The 2024–2025 Blue Book on Refined Oil and New Energy Development, jointly released by the China Petroleum Enterprise Association and several leading universities, attributes the anticipated slowdown to the growing impact of new energy alternatives and declining industrial activity.
In China, the shift is already underway. The report notes that domestic refined oil consumption peaked in 2023 and fell by 1.9% in 2024—marking the start of a sustained decline driven by the country’s accelerating energy transition.
Gasoline consumption was squeezed by a combination of rising electric vehicle adoption, expanding public transit networks, the rise of shared mobility, and increasing use of biofuels—resulting in a 1.25% year-on-year decline. Diesel demand dropped even further, down 4.86%, amid a slowdown in infrastructure spending and the growing use of LNG-powered heavy trucks. Jet fuel was the only category to see growth, rising 5.06% as commercial air travel rebounded strongly.
Looking ahead to 2025, the report predicts further contraction. With vehicle sales growing slowly and internal combustion engine ownership stagnating under pressure from electric alternatives, demand from traditional sectors is unlikely to recover. Overall refined oil consumption could fall by another 3%.
Meanwhile, the outlook for new energy remains bullish. The report forecasts robust global growth in 2025, supported by policy tailwinds and rising consumer demand. Global sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) are expected to climb further, with China’s NEV passenger car sales projected to reach 17 million—pushing the market penetration rate close to 50%.
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